Certainty in uncertain times.

Certainty is a powerful leadership tool.  When used wisely it can create momentum and value.  When used poorly it can manipulate people into bad situations.

I was part of a couple meetings this past month that got me to thinking about the power of certainty.  We’ve talked about having that positive intent when leading in a crisis.  We’ve talked about bringing the energy.  Certainty is another tool you can bring to bear.

In these meetings we are discussing a possible tool or solution with some client executives.  The conversations seemed to go around in circles and never get anywhere.  I realized that this was because the technical folks on my side were not bringing certainty.

Consultants, as a rule, will give you options.  If you ask a question to a consultant you will not get a yes or no answer.  You will get a series of alternative answers, each with its pros and cons.  Those multi-answers will be turned back onto the client and the client will have to choose how to proceed.

Sales people, on the other hand, will give you a very direct path to follow.  Fortunately or unfortunately it’s usually of a ‘buy this’ nature, but it’s simple and direct.

What I’ve observed in my 300 years in business is that clients don’t want alternatives.  They want to be told what to do.  They want certainty.

People hate uncertainty.  They crave certainty.  That’s not the same as variety.  People like variety.  They hate uncertainty.

That’s part one of this lesson.  If you want to get things done don’t give people options.  Do the work and give them certainty.

Part two of this lesson is that this loathing of uncertain increases exponentially in uncertain times.  Think of it this way – people are already having to deal with external uncertainties – they have uncertainty fatigue.  They don’t want to be given more uncertainty by you.  They can’t handle it. They are full up.

In uncertain times people literally crave certainty like a dying person in the desert craves water.

As a leader you need to not only bring positive energy and intent, you not only have to bring the energy, you have to bring certainty.

This can be hard because in uncertain times you may not have all the answers.  The correct response, the intellectually honest response may be “I don’t know”.  But, you have to package that “I don’t know” in a certainty.  Like “I don’t know if there will be more layoffs, but I can guarantee that I am personally committed to you and the success of this group!”

Be certain in the things you can control, your energy and intent.

The deeper the external uncertainty the more desperate the people you work with and live with are for certainty.  Bring that certainty.

Now, of course there is a dark side to this.  Lesson three is about the dark side.  In times of uncertainty people will flock to leaders who project certainty.  Unfortunately, this enables leaders with agendas to use certainty towards their own ends.

This is nothing new.  Periods of great uncertainty, plagues, droughts, economic hardship and revolutions create fertile grounds for the rise of demagogues.  When your average Joe hits that uncertainty fatigue point they just want someone to make it go away.  Uncertainty gives rise to strongmen who promise to make everything normal again.

Which, as we lean into the Machiavellian, leads us to lesson five, which is that if you can manufacture uncertainty you can lead people, organizations and populations to give up their power to that demagoguery.  The fatal flaw in that progression is that you’re not getting that power back.

For you, my caution is 1) do not use your new-found knowledge of the power of certainty in uncertain times for evil.  Use it to lead.  How do you create certainty when you yourself don’t know which alternative is the best option?  You have to do the work.  Play out the options of each alternative and ask the questions that matter.  Is this the right choice for the organization?  For the customer?  For my people?  Will this add value?  Is this the right thing to do?

Then do the hardest thing possible; make a decision, choose an alternative and lead down that path with certainty. Certainty of action and language and sentiment.  Bring your energy and passion.

Because at the end of the day many times all of the alternatives are better than standing around waiting to be hit by a truck.  Your certainty and passion will move the herd to safety.  The worst thing that can happen is you learn something and adapt at the next intersection.

2) be on the look out for demagogues who try to take advantage of uncertainty fatigue to push the wrong path.  Don’t let people trade their power for certainty.  That is a fool’s bargain.

And 3) be leery of those who will create or magnify uncertainty to create the very conditions that allow manipulation.

There is an old idiom that goes back to the 1700’s but was famously quoted by Benjamin Franklin at the constitutional convention of 1776.

“Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”