Capturing consumer trends in the apocalypse
A window into human behavior.
It’s difficult to step back and think about the current Coronavirus Pandemic as a unique opportunity to observe human nature, the way information spreads, and how we could use this to predict and shape future events. It’s difficult, but, by God it’s super interesting.
I’ll begin with the story of Alexis St. Martin. Alexis was an unfortunate fur trapper on Mackinac Island in 1822 who accidently got shot in the stomach. The Human body being the amazing thing that it is Alexis survived this gory wound, but with a unique twist. He had a permanent hole in his stomach. A window, if you will.
There happened to be an Army Dr. there on Mackinac named William Beaumont who did the surgeries and helped clean the fistula for Martin. In the process Beaumont realized that this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see how the stomach and digestion worked. Because, humans are curious.
It was a unique opportunity. Not something that would happen or could be created otherwise.
Our current event presents an interesting intellectual experiment in the same way.
One challenge events like this pose is their uniqueness.
Because it is a unique event, we find governments, companies and people caught flatfooted, reacting to events. It’s like we were all dozing on the bench when the coach tapped us on the shoulder and said, “You’re in the game, go!” We are all working without a playbook and that makes for a lot of lurching about, mistakes and direction changing.
On a personal level and on a cultural level this causes a large dose of anxiety and uncertainty. Anxiety is a human response in the face of uncertainty. It’s a human trait. Anxiety and anxiety fatigue effect our decision making capabilities, and typically not in a positive way.
Anxiety and fear put us in a state where we are susceptible to emotional decision making. Which, like it or not, is the marketers’ and politicians’ dream state. To put it simply, we stop using our heads.
But, Before you run to your closet, throw a blanket over your head and weep, It’s also an amazing opportunity to observe the La Comédie humaine in all it’s wild splendor.
Humans are curious. What we have before us is a great experiment. We should all be paying attention and taking notes. We are building a playbook right now.
I’ve been taking notes. Let me share with you the notes I’ve taken and comment a bit on what this says about us and what we can potentially use or learn.
One of the lenses I look through is consumer behavior. In my real job I work with large retailers. It’s fascinating to see what people are buying and not buying and then think about what that means.
Let’s look at the timeline.
In week 0 – The stores were cleared out of masks, disinfectant wipes, bleach and hand sanitizer. That can be expected. People buy based on fear. Partly the fear of the unknown disease, but also fear of missing out. If you want to create a run on any item tell people you’re running short on supplies. The human psychology kicks in to ‘Get mine before they’re gone!’
You’ll see this as a common feature throughout the consumer buying trends. It’s also one of the oldest marketing tricks in the book. ‘Only 5 left!’, ‘Don’t miss out!’ and “This offer expires at midnight. This is known as creating or leveraging the very emotional idea of scarcity to influence behavior.
If you notice yourself feeling scarcity you may want to check yourself before you end up with 14 years’ worth of diaper wipes in the basement.
Week 1 – Toilet paper, meat, dairy and eggs – bottled water. This is where people start to realize they may be stuck in their home for a month. Scarcity buying kicks in combined with a pulling forward of demand – or ‘just-in-case’ buying.
This same wave includes foods that will last for a while like canned goods, rice products, ramen noodles. Who would have thought I’d live to see the day when you couldn’t find Ramen Noodles? What are the college students eating?
In the U.S. there was also a build up of guns and ammo. It doesn’t mean anyone is planning on a war or riots in the streets. It is again a buffering of uncertainty. It’s comforting.
It’s a valid strategy to buffer against an uncertain future by building up inventory. Companies do it all the time. What we are saying is the supply of these products in the future is not certain. We buffer against uncertainty.
Week 2 – Pet supplies, toys, puzzles. Now we find ourselves at home with these strange people, who apparently, we’re related to, but haven’t ever spent quality time with. We have stepped off the office hamster wheel and we are bored. We buy those nice things that we never had time for before now. We are going to make puzzles and play with the dog. It will be great! Like a family vacation.
And alcohol. The only consistent rise in consumer trend across the weeks is this consistent need to knock back and few too many while hunkered down. Makes the time pass. Dulls the pain. We see the good and the not-so-good of human nature as we are forced to live together. Not surprisingly, at least anecdotally, divorce actions and domestic violence start to be a worry.
At the same time soft goods, things like clothing, drop to near zero demand. With the interesting exception of those companies who specialize in women’s’ tops and fashionable jogging clothes, because they only see you from the waste up on a Zoom call and if you’re taking up jogging again you need to look good on Instagram.
There is one local bookstore that has created a service to curate the books on your bookshelves. When people are looking over your shoulder at your reading material they’ll see the Pelican Shakespeare and James Joyce Ulyses as opposed to a handful of Harlequin Romances.
Week 3 – People start to realize they are in it for the long haul and their self-improvement drive takes over. Now we see a surge in home gym equipment and weights, and, (I loved this so much, kids bikes). Our friends at Peloton see a surge in membership and participation. The more intellectual among us are buying e-books, novels and home learning.
Pet adoptions are up.
Some of us revert to our grandmothers, as flour and baking products sell out. Some of us seek to fill those emotional holes created by the separation from community as pet adoption spikes.
Week 4 – We realize something must be done about that hair care that is 3 weeks overdue now. We’re all starting to look like 1970’s yearbook photos. Home hair care products are cleared away and everyone is searching for ‘how to cut your own hair’ on YouTube.
And not to let a good crisis go to waste the marketers are chasing the sentiment. Weight loss and self-care products and vitamins to enhance your immune response are being pushed.
Week 5 – As we hit the peak in heavily impacted areas here on the East Coast sympathy and bereavement cards are selling out. On a more morbid note funerary services, caskets and crematoriums are at an all time high in the harder hit metropolises, and places like Spain, Italy and New York.
As we roll into spring lawn care and home garden supplies are in short supply.
Where does that leave us in this great, unexpected experiment?
A question. What happens now? How many of these behavior changes stick? What is the consumer sentiment for Week X, Y and Z ?
Maybe you should be reserving time with an inheritance lawyer because of the coming shift in wealth from the greatest generation and the older boomers, because they own stuff, to the next generation?
What about the constant stream of joggers (yeah I’m calling them joggers, not runners for now) that passes by my window? Will they be needing running shoes and programs for beginners?
Will everyone need weight loss programs?
Will all those who have soured on globalization start supporting their local farms and business and community?
We can only hope.
The other thing that always encourages me in these disruptions is that is spurs people into making those decisions that they’ve been afraid to make. It removes the safety net that was holding people back. These big variations to the steady state create rich soil for the next generation of innovation.
The crash of the mini-computer market in the 80’s created the modern semiconductor space and the personal computer market. The first internet crash created the multi-billion-dollar household names and products you have today.
And on, and on.
Nothing drives innovation like desperation.
Crises are opportunities because they force-break the frame of reference. They break the box.
It’s up to us to see what good comes from that.
Be careful not to let emotional response manipulate you.
Be an observer. Observe as much as you react.
Observe others and yourselves.
Every day is a gift.
Take that gift and learn from it.
Use this as an opportunity to reimagine what could be.