Let’s talk about pace

I have been considering following the training structure and plan that I used many times to qualify for Boston ‘in the old days’.

Back up a bit.

Ten years ago I self published a non-fiction book called “MarathonBQ – How to qualify for Boston in 14 weeks with a full time job and family”.  This book encapsulated my training approach from the previous 10 years or so where I qualified for and ran the Boston marathon.

I had it read into audio as well.  It’s probably sold a couple thousand copies at this point.  At the time is was incredibly easy to write.  It just flowed out of me.  I had been having these conversations and ruminations about qualifying for over a decade.

It was never easy for me to qualify for Boston.  I grew up as a runner but never a fast runner.  Most marathon plans for amateurs at the time focused on getting you to the distance.  But no one answered the question, ‘How do I knock 20 minutes off that finishing time?’

So I did my research and used myself as a guinea pig and figured out how to use speed work and volume to not only finish the distance but hit that qualifying time.

And it worked.  I was able to qualify.  It was always hard and I failed more than I succeeded, but I succeeded enough to prove the point.  If you do the work, you get the results.  And if you focus on the right work, the work that you need, you get the times.

The plan consists of three quality workouts a week.  One speed work.  One tempo.  And a long run.

The speed and tempo were done on the track as sets of 1600s.  1600 is a metric mile.  Combine these track sessions with long runs and you unlock that qualifying time.

In the old days I knew what my pace was.  And I could calculate, based on the qualifying time I needed, what my speed and tempo paces should be.  My theory, in a nutshell was train for the pace you need, not the pace you have.

Most plans will try to baseline your race pace from your current race times or training paces.  For instance your 10K or your 5 miler or even your 5K race pace, or in many cases a ‘magic mile’ or Max HR test.

This is great in theory and an excellent data point on your fitness, but it is a snapshot of your fitness at that point in time, a baseline, but if you use those numbers for your speed and tempo they won’t challenge your body to get better.  Meaning don’t train for where you are, train for where you need to be to qualify.

I’m bringing all this up because I have no idea what appropriate paces are for me at the age I’m at.

And I’m curious as to how to find out.

How do I find a ‘speed’ pace or a ‘tempo’ pace that is appropriate for the race pace I need to run to qualify?

Like every other guess you make in training it’s a combination of top down, bottom up and reality.

Top down starts with the pace you need to run.  Bottom up starts with the paces you are running.  And reality is what happens when you test those paces out and see how they feel.

Let’s start with top down, because, let’s face it, that’s the only pace that matters when you’re trying to qualify.

In 2026 I will be 63 and that means my qualifying time is 3 hours and 50 minutes.  That is an 8 minute and 46 seconds per mile pace.

However, we all know that you need to beat that time, but by how much?

Well, in 2024 you would have needed to beat the qualifying time by 5:31.  In 2025 you would have needed 6:51.

A reasonably safe bet would be 8-10 minutes.

10 minutes drops my qualifying time to a 3 hours and 40 minutes.  That’s significantly faster.  The pace I need to target is somewhere between 8:23 and 8:35 per mile.

8:23 seems pretty fast for where I am right now.  8:35 seems reasonable.  That’s a range.  Gives us a starting point to calculate speed and tempo paces.

When I first used the plan to qualify my target was a 3:05 – 3:10 marathon.  That gave me a goal pace of around 7:03 – 7:10 per mile.  I ended up running a 7:07 per mile in my best effort and that stands as my PR.  I also consistently beat my then qualifying time of 3:10 – which is around  a 7:15 pace.

From that 7:15 pace I calculated the required speed and tempo.

I was running speed at 6 minutes or better for 1600 meters.  Most of those I was within 5 seconds plus or minus, so call it a 6 minute mile.

For the tempo I was running 6:30 minutes per mile for the 1600 or a 6:30 minute metric mile.

My logic for this was tempo was 30 seconds per mile faster than required pace and speed was 1 minute per mile faster than the required pace per mile.

If I apply the same simple math to my current qualifying time requirement, my tempo 1600 would be an 8 minute mile and my speed 1600 would be a 7:30.

I’m pretty sure I could run a 8 min 1600.  Not so sure about a 7:30 1600 – I’d have to work up to that.

OK that’s top down.

Let’s do bottom up.

When I was qualifying for a 3:10 my base training pace was about an 8 minute mile.  That’s 1:30 slower than the tempo and 2:00 slower than the speed I was doing.

My current base training pace is around a 9 minute mile.  Using the same bottom up math doesn’t really work.  My tempo would end up being 7:30 and my speed 7:00.

The fallacy here is that any of this is linear.  I’m almost certain it isn’t.  Most natural systems are not.  So 60 seconds and 90 seconds were the pace offsets for 1600’s to get me a 310, I can almost guarantee those aren’t the right numbers for a 3:40 marathon.

But we’re getting the zone narrowed.

Another interesting data point is to use the Yasso calculation.  The math behind a Yasso says that you should be able to do 10 X 800 meter repeats at the minute equivalent of your goal marathon time.  For me, let’s split the difference and call it a 3:45 goal marathon.  That means my Yasso times would be a 3:45 800.

Which lands us squarely on that 7:30 pace again.

I probably need to go to the track and experiment with different paces.  I have not been pushing the pace much and it will take a couple weeks for my legs to get comfortable with the speedwork mechanics.

I don’t have any 5K or 10K times to use for a another bottom up calculation.

I do have some benchmarks from my surge runs.

Earlier this week at the end of one of my runs on the rail trail I brought my effort level up to 75-80% to see what the pace would look like.  Just the last mile or so.  It was paved surface and flat.  I was finishing up a 9 mile effort.  My paces in that effort bounced around in the low 8’s.  Which tells me that an 8 minute flat tempo pace is definitely doable.

Interesting data.

After all the prestidigitation my range for faster work for my goal marathon is 7:30 – 8:00.  Which feels right.  Based on the harder efforts I have been doing in my recent training those numbers seem spot on.

I’ve got a race in 14 weeks.  Let’s see what we can do.