The Certainty – Uncertainty Balance

Dancing with risk

Sometimes I convince myself that I know everything. Then when things don’t go exactly to script it knocks me back a bit.  I forget that I am a mammalian slave to 8 million years of evolution like everyone else.  And sometimes my big brain reverts to the savanna.

As humans we get to balance stability and sameness with uncertainty and adventure.  Each of us as individuals get to draw our own line but a lot of it is baked into us.

You know people who are very conservative and just want to work their 9-5 and get their same sandwich for lunch and do this over and over again until the gears stop turning.

You also know people who need to be moving and on to a new project all the time. They thrive on the energy and excitement of uncertainty and the game of that tension.

If you’ve been in the corporate world, I’m sure someone has told you that ‘change is good!’  The people who say that aren’t the ones being forced to change.  They are the ones gaining something from the change.  The cubicle joke is that ‘change is good’ when it happens to someone else.

We all have that set point on the spectrum between certainty and uncertainty and abrupt change knocks us off our balance.  I imagine some of it is innate to our psychology, i.e. we are born with it, and some of it is taught into us from our culture and environment, i.e. it is messaged into us from our culture or our parents.

The interesting thing is that there will be a set point on this certainty – uncertainty spectrum where we all start.  Around that set point we have a comfort zone.  As we move too far out of that comfort zone we will feel tension pulling us back towards it.

That tension will have emotional and physical manifestations.  You’ll hear things like, “I’m sorry I yelled at you I have XYZ going on.”  They are being pushed out of their comfort zone by some external force and it manifests in them lashing out.  That’s the fight or flight response.

You’ll see people with all the physical manifestation of being forced out of their comfort zones, getting ulcers or cold sores.  This comes from them trying to swallow that stress and tension.  Their bodies are speaking up and manifesting.

It’s especially bad when it is abrupt.  You lose someone or something and are, without warning, popped into a discomfort zone.

Karl Marx commented on this.  He said it was human nature to prefer certainty and that’s why we let a ruling class set up the conditions to rule us.  We’ll trade almost anything for certainty.  We’ll give up our basic human freedoms for certainty.

This is how you can get people to associate with the certainty of a bad situation. You see it, where people are in a terrible position or relationship, but it is what they know and what they are comfortable with. The reward of the certainty outweighs the badness of the situation.

It seems ridiculous from the outside looking in but they would rather have the certainty of misery than the uncertainty of joy.

It probably somewhat explains why people cheat.  They trade their morals to eliminate the uncertainty of an unknown outcome.

That’s how powerful a driver certainty is in both individuals and groups.  Why do we eat the same thing, wear the same clothes and watch the same channels?  We take comfort in the certainty.

That’s also why people spend some much time, especially in the popular press, obsessing over balance.  What is balance?  It’s just another form of certainty.

The problem is that the only way you can grow and learn is to get outside your comfort zone.  The only path there leads through the land of change.  And change is the enemy of certainty.  We seem to have run into a catch 22.  And, as Yosarian said, “That’s some catch, that catch 22!”

Then how do people do it?  How do people live uncertain lives?  How to people thrive in uncertainty?

The trick is to make the uncertain certain. To make change the norm.  And, in the end replace the tension of moving out of your comfort zone with a reward system that creates a positive feedback loop even in the most uncertain times and situations.

How do you flip the script on that feeling of anxiety when you get out of your comfort zone?  How to you exchange that feeling of vulnerability and loss for a sense of opportunity and abundance?

It ain’t easy and it ain’t how we are wired.  (Editors note: Ain’t ain’t an old English word.  It only dates back to the 1740’s and it is an entirely American contraction of ‘is not’ and ‘are not’.  Regional dialect.)

What are some things you can do to get into the change that moves you into uncertainty and not have it blow up your mind with anxiety?

  1. Own it. Sure, being able to manage change is a leadership skill.  Lead that change.  Make that change your mission.  It still may be outside your comfort zone, but at least you’ve nailed it down, set it in your sites and taken the uncertainty out of it.
  2. Get 3rd party help. The anxiety level around being impacted by change is such that it causes you to go into ‘fight or flight’ mode and that shuts off your big brain.  You lose your ability to make decisions and think impartially.  One of the best ways to get perspective is to ask a 3rd party, that you trust, that does not have a dog in the fight for help.

This doesn’t mean your boss, your spouse or a peer at work.  They have a dog in the fight.  This means another person you trust that you can speak openly with.  You should be cultivating these people professionally and personally in your life.  If you’re going to be skating outside on the thin ice of uncertainty – you will need them.

If it fits your budget and outlook on life you can hire a coach or counselor, but sometimes that add more anxiety than it removes.

  1. Set a limit.

Whatever it is that you are trying to do, decide ahead of time when you are going to tap out.  Don’t write a blank check to any project.  What’s the milestone event on the journey that you can measure that will tell you whether it’s time to regroup?  Having this thought out ahead of time removes more uncertainty.

  1. Ask better questions:
    1. First uncertainty removal question is: “What’s the worst that can happen?” Have that conversation with your stakeholders.  What’s the worst that can happen?  You can lose your job? – ok, is that the end of the world?  You could end up alone?  Is that going to end you?

Chances are once you talk through the worst case scenarios you’ll find they aren’t that bad and you can handle it.

  1. Second question is: “What can I learn from this?”  If you don’t achieve all your goals, but you learn something then you win.
  2. Third question is: “Who else has done this?”  Find them and interview them.  If someone else has done it then chance are you can do it too.  Ask them how they overcame their reservations.  Ask them what they learned.

So my friends, there will be times when you need to shake off the dust from your shoulders, get up and stride outside into that beautiful, scary, uncertain sunny world.  You are going to find monsters to fight, treasures to fill your soul and people with great stories.

Just take the time to breath and lean in and you’ll be fine.  It’s going to be ok.  You can handle it.

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